You’re at a party and meet someone. After chatting for a bit, you work out that the girl you’re talking to has 2 kids and one of them is a boy. What are the chances she’s got 2 boys rather than a boy and a girl?
Actually, I really want to ask a slightly more complicated question than this. But let’s take things slowly. Please think about this problem and, if you have time, mail me or send me your answer via this form. Subsequently, I’ll discuss the answer to this problem and ask you the slightly more complicated question that I’m really interested in.
Quick update: just to be clear, assume that all children are equally likely to be born male or female, and that this doesn’t change even if a mother has already given birth to previous children of known gender.