Whatever happened to the Nokia 3310, and what’s that got to do with sports data?
Many of you will know Rasmus Ankerson from his involvement with both Brentford and Midtjylland. Maybe you’ve also seen this video of a TED talk Rasmus gave a while back, but I’ve only just come across it. I think it’s interesting because there are now plenty of articles, books and – ahem – blogs, which emphasise the potential for statistics and data analytics in both sports and gambling. But Rasmus’s talk here goes in the other direction and argues that since data analytics has been proven as a valuable tool to assist gambling on sports, there are lessons that can be learned for leaders of business and industry. The main themes are
- In any process where there’s an element of chance, it’s important to recognise that good and bad results are not just a function of good and bad performance, but also of good and bad luck;
- There are potentially huge gains in trying to identify the aspects of performance that determine either good or bad results, notwithstanding the interference effects of luck.
In other words, businesses, like football teams, have results that are part performance-driven and part luck. Signal and noise, if you like. Rasmus argues that good business, like good football management, is about identifying what it is that determines the signal, while mitigating for the noise. And only by adopting this strategy can companies, like Nokia, avoid the type of sudden death that happened to the 3310. Or as Rasmus puts it: “RIP at gadgets graveyard”.
Anyway, Rasmus’s talk is a great watch, partly because of the message it sends about the importance of Statistics to both sport and industry, but also because it includes something about the history of the relationship between Smartodds, Brentford and Midtjylland. Enjoy.