In an earlier post I included a link to Oscar predictions by film critic Mark Kermode over the years, which included 100% success rate across all of the main categories in a couple of years. I also recounted his story of how he failed to make a fortune in 1992 by not knowing about accumulator bets.
Well, it’s almost Oscar season, and firstname.lastname@example.org pointed me to this article, which includes Mark’s personal shortlist for the coming awards. Now, these aren’t the same as predictions: in some year’s, Mark has listed his own personal favourites as well as what he believes to be the likely winners, and there’s often very little in common. On the other hand, these lists have been produced prior to the nominations, so you’re likely to get better prices on bets now, rather than later. You’ll have to be quick though, as the nominations are announced in a couple of hours.
Anyway, maybe you’d like to sift through Mark’s recommendations, look for hints as to who he thinks the winner is likely to be, and make a bet accordingly. But if you do make a bet based on these lists, here are a few things to take into account:
- Please remember the difference between an accumulator bet and single bets;
- Please gamble responsibly;
- Please don’t blame me if you lose.
If Mark subsequently publishes actual predictions for the Oscars, I’ll include a link to those as well.
Update: the nominations have now been announced and are listed here. Comparing the nominations with Mark Kermode’s own list, the number of nominations which appear in Mark’s personal list for each category are as follows:
Best Picture: 1
Best Director: 2
Best Actor: 1
Best Actress: 2
Best supporting Actor: 3
Best supporting Actress: 1
Best Score: 2
In each case except Best Picture, there are 5 nominations and Mark’s list also comprised 5 contenders. For Best Picture, there are 8 nominations, though Mark only provided 5 suggestions.
So, not much overlap. But again, these weren’t intended to be Mark’s predictions. They were his own choices. I’ll aim to update with Mark’s actual predictions if he publishes them.